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Arsenal vs Man United

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Arsenal win: 44.5%

Draw: 25.5%

Man United win: 30.0%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.19

More corners: Arsenal (72.7% home / 27.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 74.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (69.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (73.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.